London is the key for Labour, says recent ICM poll
8 April 2015, Blog
An ICM poll from 26 March suggests that Labour will make important gains in London on May 7, with the party set to increase their vote share by five percent since 2010.
The poll suggests that Labour will lead the way with 42%, with the Conservatives feeling the effects of Labour’s resurgence, dropping back to 32%, three less than their result in 2010. This means that there would be eight more seats for Labour mostly in the west of the city. The same poll says that the Liberal Democrats will experience a 13% decline, echoing their predicted overall performance countrywide next month.
The constituencies of Brentford & Isleworth, Ealing Central & Acton, and Harrow East will be Labour gains but Conservative losses, with Croydon Central, Enfield North and Hendon following suit. Labour is expected to take Brent Central and Hornsey & Wood Green off the Liberal Democrats too.
The poll asked what Londoners thought about the amount of taxes they paid, while also garnering their opinion on support for a London independence referendum. Unsurprisingly, only 14% of Londoners would vote to break away from the rest of the UK. Londoners were divided on the how they felt about the large share of UK taxes they paid, with 38% feeling that “revenues paid by Londoners should be retained within the city to solve its social problems” and 36% feeling that “it is right that London supports the rest of the country financially because it is more prosperous.”
While the poll can only provide us with a speculative outcome come May 8, if Miliband and his party were to make the predicted gains, it would reinforce the trend that stretches back to the 1990s, that has seen Labour performing particularly strongly in London.