Two polls put Khan ahead of Goldsmith in the mayoral race

16 March 2016, Blog

Two polls from Opinium and YouGov, released on last Thursday (10 March) and Monday (14) respectively, have placed Sadiq Khan in a favourable position ahead of May. The Opinium poll gives a 5pt lead whist the YouGov one shows a 7pt lead.

Significantly, the YouGov poll shows that since their mayoral survey was conducted in January 2016, Khan has strengthened his lead by 1pt over Goldsmith. The poll also shows the other parties in the race as making very little impact – the UKIP, Lib Dem and Green candidates are shown as having less than 5pts  each.

The Opionium poll shows that voters’ location has a definite bearing on voting intentions. When inner London voters were surveyed, Khan had a greater margin over Goldsmith, but among outer London voters, the two candidates are neck-and-neck. With 23% of those surveyed in the YouGov poll undecided, turnout predicted to be less than 50%, and voters in the big outer London ‘doughnut’ more likely to vote than inner city voters. Boris was well known for focussing on this ‘doughnut’ which is believed in large part to have secured him the two terms. The contest is still wide open, despite what the polls may suggest.

JBP Staff Member

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